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Thread: Rhodes update

  1. #11
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    Hi Andre

    I will be up that way too, from November through to December. I am in the same mindset, need some rain, just not too much too fast.

    It will be awesome either way!

    J
    Check out some of my FF pics - http://www.flickr.com/photos/30562135@N07/

  2. Default

    Some wetness predicted for end of October apparently. Can one even predict it that far away?
    Mario Geldenhuys
    Smallstream fanatic, plus I do some other things that I can't tell you about

    "All the tips or magical insights in the world can't replace devotion, dedication, commitment, and gumption - and there is not secret in that" - Glenn Brackett

  3. #13
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    Its a long shot! The rains will come, let just hope soon and in moderation.

    No flash flood or cloud bursts and than.

    I am in CT at the moment, they have plenty of water to spare! ;P

    J
    Check out some of my FF pics - http://www.flickr.com/photos/30562135@N07/

  4. #14
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by smallstreams.co.za View Post
    Some wetness predicted for end of October apparently. Can one even predict it that far away?
    Nope not possible, I follow various different weather sites and even 7 days is a push!
    The closer one gets to realizing his destiny, the more that destiny becomes his true reason for being! Paulo Coelho

  5. #15
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    I think that they base very long forecasts on a scale of probabilities. Its a summer rainfall area, and the climate is based on this. They take the average over a number of past years and average it out. On a scale of probabilities, there is a better than even chance of rain occurring before this date. Its not a weather forecast, so much as it is a climate forecast. The further out the forecast get, the more climate based they become.
    Quote Originally Posted by Umhlangarox View Post
    Nope not possible, I follow various different weather sites and even 7 days is a push!
    Disclaimer.... none of my posts are intended to be "expert advice"..just opinions from someone who is willing to help where he can.

  6. #16
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    So essentially that worecast is....pointless

  7. #17
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    Meyerton
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andre View Post
    I think that they base very long forecasts on a scale of probabilities. Its a summer rainfall area, and the climate is based on this. They take the average over a number of past years and average it out. On a scale of probabilities, there is a better than even chance of rain occurring before this date. Its not a weather forecast, so much as it is a climate forecast. The further out the forecast get, the more climate based they become.
    They also look at the jet stream, el nino effect and the intestines of a sacrificed goat.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andre View Post
    I think that they base very long forecasts on a scale of probabilities. Its a summer rainfall area, and the climate is based on this. They take the average over a number of past years and average it out. On a scale of probabilities, there is a better than even chance of rain occurring before this date. Its not a weather forecast, so much as it is a climate forecast. The further out the forecast get, the more climate based they become.
    So my point still stands, you can't accurately forecast weather that far in advance!

    I can guarantee you Cape Town will get rain in November, but that's useless if I can't tell you when, how much, over what period etc etc etc
    The closer one gets to realizing his destiny, the more that destiny becomes his true reason for being! Paulo Coelho

  9. #19
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    Correct, it cant be accurately predicted. Long term forecasts are done by a supercomputer, taking averages of many things over past years into account.
    Quote Originally Posted by Umhlangarox View Post
    So my point still stands, you can't accurately forecast weather that far in advance!

    I can guarantee you Cape Town will get rain in November, but that's useless if I can't tell you when, how much, over what period etc etc etc
    Its a little more of a science than this. Nothing about the future can be predicted with 100 percent accuracy... as I said, the weather long term, is based on a scale of probabilities.
    Disclaimer.... none of my posts are intended to be "expert advice"..just opinions from someone who is willing to help where he can.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andre View Post
    Correct, it cant be accurately predicted.
    Thanks, that's all I was trying to say!
    The closer one gets to realizing his destiny, the more that destiny becomes his true reason for being! Paulo Coelho

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