Rhodes update

[JadeDsantos]

Hi Andre

I will be up that way too, from November through to December. I am in the same mindset, need some rain, just not too much too fast.

It will be awesome either way!

J

[smallstreams.co.za]

Some wetness predicted for end of October apparently. Can one even predict it that far away?

[JadeDsantos]

Its a long shot! The rains will come, let just hope soon and in moderation.

No flash flood or cloud bursts and than.

I am in CT at the moment, they have plenty of water to spare! ;P

J

[Umhlangarox]

Some wetness predicted for end of October apparently. Can one even predict it that far away?

Nope not possible, I follow various different weather sites and even 7 days is a push!

[Andre]

I think that they base very long forecasts on a scale of probabilities. Its a summer rainfall area, and the climate is based on this. They take the average over a number of past years and average it out. On a scale of probabilities, there is a better than even chance of rain occurring before this date. Its not a weather forecast, so much as it is a climate forecast. The further out the forecast get, the more climate based they become.

Nope not possible, I follow various different weather sites and even 7 days is a push!

[Jean Bence]

So essentially that worecast is....pointless

[icstuff]

I think that they base very long forecasts on a scale of probabilities. Its a summer rainfall area, and the climate is based on this. They take the average over a number of past years and average it out. On a scale of probabilities, there is a better than even chance of rain occurring before this date. Its not a weather forecast, so much as it is a climate forecast. The further out the forecast get, the more climate based they become.

They also look at the jet stream, el nino effect and the intestines of a sacrificed goat.

[Umhlangarox]

I think that they base very long forecasts on a scale of probabilities. Its a summer rainfall area, and the climate is based on this. They take the average over a number of past years and average it out. On a scale of probabilities, there is a better than even chance of rain occurring before this date. Its not a weather forecast, so much as it is a climate forecast. The further out the forecast get, the more climate based they become.

So my point still stands, you can't accurately forecast weather that far in advance!

I can guarantee you Cape Town will get rain in November, but that's useless if I can't tell you when, how much, over what period etc etc etc

[Andre]

Correct, it cant be accurately predicted. Long term forecasts are done by a supercomputer, taking averages of many things over past years into account.

So my point still stands, you can't accurately forecast weather that far in advance!

I can guarantee you Cape Town will get rain in November, but that's useless if I can't tell you when, how much, over what period etc etc etc

Its a little more of a science than this. Nothing about the future can be predicted with 100 percent accuracy... as I said, the weather long term, is based on a scale of probabilities.

[Umhlangarox]

Correct, it cant be accurately predicted.

Thanks, that's all I was trying to say!